Simulating a Shift to E-delivery: Impacts on VMT (Project F6)

STRIDE project K5 is creating better estimates of shopping vehicle miles traveled (VMT) in the US, using detailed travel survey data. These estimates provide a valuable baseline against which to compare estimates of the transport impacts of e-shopping and delivery services. The proposed project represents a logical extension, using the information gathered in Project K5 to provide estimates of the effect of a shift to e-shopping on travel outcomes. The project has three components. First, a regression model will be estimated using the data from Project K5 to predict the marginal VMT of a shopping trip, based on attributes of the destination and the trip maker. Second, a predicting online and in-person shopping and the tradeoffs or complementarity between them will be constructed based on COVID Future survey data. Third, the lessons learned from these models will be integrated into a regional travel demand model to improve forecasting of shopping travel, especially as e-shopping becomes more prevalent. The research team anticipates that this project will result in more thorough consideration of shopping travel and e-shopping in infrastructure planning.