Forecasting: Trying to Reason from Hurricane Season

B. Jay Coleman

doi:10.1287/ited.6.2.1

Forecasting: Trying to Reason from Hurricane Season

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

Hurricane season presents an excellent illustration of a wide range of issues encountered in developing and responding to business forecasts. The high profile of hurricane forecasts—particularly during the 2004 season in which four hurricanes made landfall in Florida, and during the 2005 season when hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans and the surrounding region—makes them a convenient, visible, and ideal illustrative classroom example. This paper outlines 25 business forecasting principles and their direct parallels in hurricane forecasting. This compilation has been successfully used by author as a basis for an in-class review of forecasting in an undergraduate operations management introductory course. A report of the positive student feedback and comparative test results is provided.

Original language	American English
Pages (from-to)	1-7
Number of pages	7
Journal	Informs Transactions on Education
Volume	6
Issue number	2
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1287/ited.6.2.1
State	Published - Jan 1 2006

ASJC Scopus Subject Areas

Business, Management and Accounting (miscellaneous)

Keywords

Forecasts
business forecasting
operations management

Disciplines

Business
Business Administration, Management, and Operations

Access to Document

10.1287/ited.6.2.1License: Unspecified

Cite this

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title = "Forecasting: Trying to Reason from Hurricane Season",

abstract = "Hurricane season presents an excellent illustration of a wide range of issues encountered in developing and responding to business forecasts. The high profile of hurricane forecasts—particularly during the 2004 season in which four hurricanes made landfall in Florida, and during the 2005 season when hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans and the surrounding region—makes them a convenient, visible, and ideal illustrative classroom example. This paper outlines 25 business forecasting principles and their direct parallels in hurricane forecasting. This compilation has been successfully used by author as a basis for an in-class review of forecasting in an undergraduate operations management introductory course. A report of the positive student feedback and comparative test results is provided.",

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