Abstract
This research examines whether the college football betting line and over/under accurately assimilate travel effects on visiting teams, including time zones traversed; direction and distance traveled; and temperature, elevation, and aridity changes. We investigate the market’s accuracy at predicting winners, point differentials, and points scored and examine its market efficiency, that is, whether travel affects the chance the home team covers the spread or the chance that an “over” bet wins. The betting market is found to be an inaccurate and inefficient processor of travel effects, most consistently for late-season games involving an underdog with a 1-hr time deficit versus its opponent.
| Original language | American English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 388-425 |
| Number of pages | 37 |
| Journal | Journal of Sports Economics |
| Volume | 18 |
| Issue number | 4 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - May 2017 |
Keywords
- college football
- sports betting
- travel
- prediction
- efficiency
Disciplines
- Economics
- Statistics and Probability
- Business Administration, Management, and Operations
- Public Relations and Advertising
- Marketing